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The New York Times
Politics
Political Memo
Same-Sex Marriage
Holds Peril for G.O.P.
By ADAM NAGOURNEY,
nytimes.com from the Web, April 29, 2009
WASHINGTON — It was only five
years ago that opposition to same-sex marriage was so strong that Republicans
explicitly turned to the issue as a way to energize conservative voters.
Yet today, as the party contemplates the task of rebuilding itself, some
Republicans say the marriage issue may be turning into more of a hindrance than
a help.
The fact that a run of states have legalized same-sex marriage in recent months
— either by court decision or by legislative action — with little backlash is
only one indication of how public attitudes about this subject appear to be
changing.
More significant is evidence in polls of a widening divide on the issue by age,
suggesting to many Republicans that the potency of the marriage question is on
the decline. It simply does not appear to have the resonance with younger
voters that it does with older ones.
Consider this: In the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, released
Monday, 31 percent of respondents over the age of 40 said they supported
same-sex marriage. By contrast, 57 percent under age 40 said they
supported it, a 26-point difference. Among the older respondents, 35
percent said they opposed any legal recognition of same-sex couples, be it
marriage or civil unions. Among the younger crowd, just 19 percent held
that view.
Steve Schmidt, who was the senior strategist to Senator John McCain of Arizona
during his presidential campaign, said in a speech and an interview that
Republicans were in danger of losing these younger voters unless the party came
to appreciate how issues like same-sex marriage resonated, or did not resonate,
with them.
“Republicans should re-examine the extent to which we are being defined by
positions on issues that I don’t believe are among our core values, and that put
us at odds with what I expect will become, over time, if not a consensus view,
then the view of a substantial majority of voters,” Mr. Schmidt said in a
speech.
This does not mean, Republicans said, that most Americans are suddenly embracing
the idea of same-sex couples’ going to the chapel. It is more that, for a
lot of these Americans, same-sex marriage is not something they spend a lot of
time worrying about, or even thinking about.
For younger respondents, this shift may in part be cultural: the result of
coming of age in an era when openly gay men and lesbians have become
increasingly common in popular entertainment and in public life, not to mention
in their own families or social circles. The other reason, members of both
parties said, is that the argument over same-sex marriage seems beside the point
at a time when the country is facing a severe economic crisis, remains on edge
for another domestic terrorist attack and has just inaugurated its first black
president.
“Right now, people are not concerned about issues like gay marriage because they
are concerned about the economy,” Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former Republican
mayor of New York, told reporters in Albany after meeting with Republican
members of the State Senate, who are opposing legislation to legalize same-sex
marriage.
Mr. Giuliani explained that he opposed such marriages — while supporting civil
unions — but that he did not think it made much sense for Republicans to be
emphasizing the issue if the party had any serious interest in returning to
power.
“The Republican party does best organizing itself around economic issues and
issues of national security,” said Mr. Giuliani, 64, who ran for president last
year and is now thinking about running for governor of New York.
In this latest New York Times/CBS News poll, 42 percent of all respondents said
they supported same-sex marriage, compared with 22 percent in March 2004.
By contrast, 18 percent of Republicans supported such marriages, while 49
percent said they opposed any kind of recognition of gay unions.
“It’s a problem,” Mr. Schmidt said in an interview.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, a Republican, is a social conservative who
opposes same-sex marriage and is considering a run for president.
Asked if he thought Republicans were making a political mistake in emphasizing
gay issues, Mr. Pawlenty, who is 48, responded, “I think it’s an important issue
for our conservative voters.” But he notably did not dwell on the subject.
Before joining Mr. McCain’s campaign, Mr. Schmidt was known in Republican
circles for arguing that the party needed to move away from social issues to be
successful; he managed Arnold Schwarzenegger’s successful campaign for governor
in California.
“The Republican Party is shrinking,” Mr. Schmidt said. “One of the reasons
it is shrinking is because there are large demographics in this country that
view the party as intolerant or not relevant to them.”
For Republicans, the complications of this issue could very well focus on the
first state on the nominating calendar in 2012, Iowa. The courts there
overturned a law banning same-sex marriage earlier this month, and social
conservatives, who are a strong force in Republican politics in Iowa, are
already organizing to try to amend the state’s Constitution to restore the ban.
Republican candidates for president are going to be pressed to support that
effort, and to spend time talking about an issue that could undercut their
appeal to more centrist voters in a general election.
As Mr. Schmidt noted, the winner of the Iowa Republican caucus is hardly assured
of becoming the party’s nominee; Mr. McCain lost there in 2008. Still, he
said it would be difficult for any Republican candidate to win his party’s
nomination in 2012 without opposing same-sex marriage.
“I think it’s likely that all our candidates will be against gay marriage,” Mr.
Schmidt said. “But the point is this: There should be a de-emphasis
on this issue. This is not the most important issue facing the country.”
Mr. Schmidt is 38 years old.
Megan Thee-Brenan contributed reporting.
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