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The New York Times
New Poll Finds That
Young Americans
Are Leaning Left
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and
MEGAN THEE, From nytimes.com on the Web, June 27, 2007
Young Americans are more likely than
the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance
system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage,
according to a New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll. The poll also found that
they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful
conclusion.
The poll offers a snapshot of a group whose energy and idealism have always been
as alluring to politicians as its scattered focus and shifting interests have
been frustrating. It found that substantially more Americans ages 17 to 29
than four years ago are paying attention to the presidential race. But
they appeared to be really familiar with only two of the candidates, Senators
Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, both Democrats.
They have continued a long-term drift away from the Republican Party. And
although they are just as worried as the general population about the outlook
for the country and think their generation is likely to be worse off than that
of their parents, they retain a belief that their votes can make a difference,
the poll found.
More than half of Americans ages 17 to 29 — 54 percent — say they intend to vote
for a Democrat for president in 2008. They share with the public at large
a negative view of President Bush, who has a 28 percent approval rating with
this group, and of the Republican Party. They hold a markedly more
positive view of Democrats than they do of Republicans.
Among this age group, Mr. Bush’s job approval rating after the attacks of Sept.
11 was more than 80 percent. Over the course of the next three years, it
drifted downward leading into the presidential election of 2004, when 4 of 10
young Americans said they approved how Mr. Bush was handling his job.
At a time when Democrats have made gains after years in which Republicans have
dominated Washington, young Americans appear to lean slightly more to the left
than the general population: 28 percent described themselves as liberal,
compared with 20 percent of the nation at large. And 27 percent called
themselves conservative, compared with 32 percent of the general public.
Forty-four percent said they believed that same-sex couples should be permitted
to get married, compared with 28 percent of the public at large. They are
more likely than their elders to support the legalization of possession of small
amounts of marijuana.
The findings on gay marriage were reminiscent of an exit poll on Election Day
2004: 41 percent of 18-to-29-year-old voters said gay couples should be
permitted to legally marry, according to the exit poll.
In the current poll, 62 percent said they would support a universal,
government-sponsored national health care insurance program; 47 percent of the
general public holds that view. And 30 percent said that “Americans should
always welcome new immigrants,” while 24 percent of the general public holds
that view.
Their views on abortion mirror those of the public at large: 24 percent
said it should not be permitted at all, while 38 percent said it should be made
available but with greater restrictions. Thirty-seven percent said it
should be generally available.
In one potential sign of shifting attitudes, respondents, by overwhelming
margins, said they believed that the nation was prepared to elect as president a
woman, a black person or someone who admitted to having used marijuana.
But they said that they did not believe Americans would elect someone who had
used cocaine or someone who was a Mormon.
Mr. Obama has suggested that he used cocaine as a young man. Mitt Romney,
the former governor of Massachusetts and a candidate for the Republican
nomination, is a Mormon.
By a 52 to 36 majority, young Americans say that Democrats, rather than
Republicans, come closer to sharing their moral values, while 58 percent said
they had a favorable view of the Democratic Party, and 38 percent said they had
a favorable view of Republicans.
Asked if they were enthusiastic about any of the candidates running for
president, 18 percent named Mr. Obama, of Illinois, and 17 percent named Mrs.
Clinton, of New York. Those two were followed by Rudolph W. Giuliani, a
Republican, who was named by just 4 percent of the respondents.
The survey also found that 42 percent of young Americans thought it was likely
or very likely that the nation would reinstate a military draft over the next
few years — and two-thirds said they thought the Republican Party was more
likely to do so. And 87 percent of respondents said they opposed a draft.
But when it came to the war, young Americans were more optimistic about the
outcome than was the population as whole. Fifty-one percent said the
United States was very or somewhat likely to succeed in Iraq, compared with 45
percent among all adults. Contrary to conventional wisdom, younger
Americans have historically been more likely than the population as a whole to
be supportive of what a president is doing in a time of war, as they were in
Korea and Vietnam, polls have shown.
The nationwide telephone poll — a joint effort by The New York Times, CBS News
and MTV — was conducted from June 15 to June 23. It involved 659 adults
ages 17 to 29. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four
percentage points for all respondents.
The Times/CBS News/MTV Poll suggests that younger Americans are conflicted in
their view of the country. Many have a bleak view about their own future
and the direction the country is heading: 70 percent said the country was
on the wrong track, while 48 percent said they feared that their generation
would be worse off than their parents’. But the survey also found that
this generation of Americans is not cynical: 77 percent said they thought
the votes of their generation would have a great bearing on who became the next
president.
By any measure, the poll suggests that young Americans are anything but
apathetic about the presidential election. Fifty-eight percent said they
were paying attention to the campaign. By contrast, at this point in the
2004 presidential campaign, 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said they were
paying a lot or some attention to the campaign.
Over the last half century, the youth vote has more often than not gone with the
Democratic candidate for president, though with some notable exceptions.
In 1984, Ronald Reagan won his second term as president by capturing 59 percent
of the youth vote, according to exit polls, and the first President George Bush
won in 1988 with 52 percent of that vote. This age group, however, has
supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since.
The percentage of young voters who identified themselves as Republican grew
steadily during the Reagan administration, and reached a high of 37 percent in
1989. That number has declined ever since, and is now at 25 percent.
“I think the Democratic Party is now realizing how big an impact my generation
has, and they’re trying to cater to that in some way,” Ashley Robinson, 21, a
Democrat from Minnesota, said in an interview after she participated in the
poll. “But the traditional Republican Party is still trying to get older
votes, which doesn’t make sense because there are so many more voters my age.
It would be sensible to cater to us.”
That a significant number of respondents said they were enthusiastic about just
two of the candidates — Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton — to a certain extent
reflects that both candidates have been the subject of a huge amount of national
attention and have presented the country with historic candidacies. Mr.
Obama would be the first black president and Mrs. Clinton the first woman.
Other candidates could begin drawing attention from this group as the campaign
takes a higher platform.
More important, though, at least for Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama is the
impression this group has of them. In the poll, 43 percent of respondents
said they held an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, a number that reflects the
tide of resistance she faces nationwide. By contrast, only 19 percent said
they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama.
Marjorie Connelly, Marina Stefan and Dalia Sussman contributed
reporting.
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