Bush, Iraq war at
issue for Gay
From The Times
(nj.com) on the Web, September 5, 2006
Trenton, NJ Sept. 4 -- Each
time a Democrat runs against Republican Rep. Chris Smith, it recalls Samuel
Johnson's description of remarriage: the triumph of hope over experience.
Smith typically disposes of a challenger without breaking a sweat.
The latest in line, Carol Gay, says conditions are different this year. She
intends to try to make the 4th District race a referendum on President Bush and
the war in Iraq, neither of which is very popular in New Jersey these days.
Smith "has been a consistent supporter of the war, and votes with Bush 83
percent of the time," she says. "The mood of this country has changed
dramatically over the past year or so. Most people think we're headed in
the wrong direction. I can provide leadership to reverse some of these
failed policies."
The strategy comes naturally to Gay, a retired labor union official from Brick
who was briefly arrested a year ago in an anti-war demonstration at the White
House. And it's plausible, now that at least a few Republican congressmen
who have strongly backed the war have switched to calling for a timetable for
U.S. withdrawal.
But all the problems that have plagued previous Smith opponents confront her as
well, starting with the who's-she? factor. A late replacement for a
Democratic candidate who withdrew, Gay has minuscule name recognition in the
sprawling Fourth District. Mercer County Democratic Chairman Rich
McClellan introduced her at a party convention in June as "Carla Gray."
By contrast, Smith has served 26 years in the House of Representatives.
He's now been there as long as his predecessor, Democrat Frank Thompson Jr., who
seemingly had life tenure before he was caught in the FBI's Abscam net and
unseated in the fluke election of 1980.
Once in office, Smith demonstrated a talent for staying there. He has won
the last 11 of his 13 election victories with more than 60 percent of the vote.
He has beaten Democrats with name recognition, such as Jeff Laurenti, Betty
Holland, Brian Hughes and Reed Gusciora, and Democrats with none, such as Amy
Vasquez and Mary Brennan, whom he trounced the last two times out by 2-1
margins. Unwilling to help raise his opponents' visibility, he
consistently refuses to debate in spite of his own speaking skill and mastery of
detail.
Success begets success, and it also begets campaign funds. Smith was able
to outspend Vasquez two years ago by more than 15 to 1 -- $533,725 to $34,687.
The Democratic Party and the big interest groups don't customarily put money
into losing causes, and the 4th District is manifestly not one of the party's
targeted races this year.
When Smith first won, the district was Democratic, but it was re shaped after
the 2000 census as part of a cozy bipartisan arrangement to give all 13 New
Jersey incumbents job insurance. It retains part of Democratic Trenton,
but it also includes the growing suburbs of Ocean and Monmouth counties, and it
went for President Bush in 2004 by a comfortable margin.
Smith's serial re-elections have been built on a record of hard work, meticulous
attention to the needs of his constituents and his district, impeccable personal
ethics and activism on human rights. He's supported by labor and
environmentalists and is a hero to veterans, the more so since a fight with his
party's leadership over what he felt was stingy funding cost him his cherished
chairmanship of the House Veterans Committee. All this has given Smith
wide latitude to pursue his signature issues -- opposing abortion and embryonic
stem-cell research and undercutting family-planning programs -- with
uncompromising fervor, despite the fact that a majority of New Jerseyans feel
otherwise.
Although Smith has his customary strong labor support this year, Carol Gay says
she has endorsements and offers of help from several unions herself, including
some locals of her own former union, the Communications Workers of America.
She won't say how much money she expects to raise, except that it will be more
than other recent 4h District Democratic candidates have received.
Gay says she'll pound home the message that the war is a disaster and that U.S.
troops should be brought home "as soon as it's physically, logistically possible
to get them out of there." If nothing else, it's a position that's direct
and easy to understand. "Right now, we're part of the problem, not the
solution," she says. "Our presence is creating instability in the entire
Middle East and our troops are tar gets because of the intense antagonism
against us. I don't think that Iraq can begin to recover until our troops
are out of there."
She points to unmet needs in health care, education, transportation and energy
independence, which she says could be funded with the money lost to the war and
President Bush's tax cuts. She'll tell voters: If you're against
Bush's war policy and his domestic agenda, including his attempt to privatize
Social Security, then you should vote for me.
Mercer County Executive Brian Hughes, who ran unsuccessfully against Smith in
1992 before launching his career in county government, says Gay's strategy of
trying to nationalize the election makes sense in light of the president's low
poll standings.
"Whether it's successful or not is going to depend basically on the mood of the
country on Election Day," Hughes says. "It's a time of terrorism, gas
prices shooting through the roof and a general unease in the country. When
I talk to folks, there's a lot of generalized dissatisfaction."
David Rebovich, managing director of the Rider University Institute for New
Jersey Politics, questions how well Gay's intended message will play in areas
around Fort Dix, McGuire Air Force Base and the remnants of Fort Monmouth.
"This would seem to be a district where people might be more inclined to, I
won't say support the war, but certainly support the troops and get a little bit
nervous about an anti-war candidate," Rebovich says. "But give her credit
for trying to expand the electorate -- basically, to pull new people out to vote
who otherwise would stay home in a midterm election: young people and,
typically, females who would be more inclined to be anti-war and anti-Bush and
would see the value of sort of a symbolic vote.
"To do so, however, you do need some money to run ads, or you need to put
together a terrific volunteer team to help you knock on doors and spread the
word."
Whether money and volunteers materialize remains to be seen. Even if they
do, the Fourth is "a difficult seat, a difficult district" for Democrats to hope
to win, Brian Hughes says. But, he adds, campaigns can produce the
unexpected, and "this may be one of them."
Contact George Amick at
gamick@njtimes.com.
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