A new study predicts a huge economic windfall for New Jersey if same-sex marriages were allowed.

The UCLA School of Law study predicts that New Jersey wedding- and tourism-related businesses would cash in to the tune of $102.5 million per year for the first three years, while state coffers would get $7.2 million per year in tax revenue for those years, all from introducing a gay marriage market.

"New Jersey would have no competition from other states for the expected influx of wedding-related visitors," the study's author, M.V. Lee Badgett, said. Badgett is the research director at the Williams Institute on Sexual Orientation and Public Policy, an academic think tank at the California school.

The study uses state tourism figures to determine what the couples would spend on lodging, meals, shopping, entertainment, flowers, photographers and other wedding expenses.  Badgett also cites research by the wedding industry itself on the average costs of such ceremonies.

That same money, Badgett said, would not materialize if the state were to approve civil unions, as the state Senate and Assembly are scheduled to vote on today.

"I think very few people will come from out of state to get a civil union," Badgett said.  "Other states have them now and very few come from out of state.  It's not just about the benefits.  Marriage is a deeply rooted ceremony.  It's about status.  Civil unions don't have all that historic and cultural meaning."

The key to the windfall, Badgett said, is New Jersey's proximity to thousands of gay couples and the fact that no other state offers the marriage option. Massachusetts allows same-sex marriages, but only for residents. New Jersey has no such restriction, so it would draw from Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland and other East Coast states.

Even if other states eventually allow same-sex couples to marry, the study says New Jersey would likely remain the prime East Coast destination.

The windfall would be huge in towns such as Cape May, which already has an established wedding industry and a substantial gay population and tourist clientele.  The study predicts 58,000 same-sex couples would travel to New Jersey from other states in just the first three years.

Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew, D-Cape May, Cumberland, Atlantic, said he favors civil unions and would not be swayed by the new study.

"Sometimes you have to look beyond dollars and cents.  This is an issue far greater than dollar value.  It has social, ethical, religious and legal implications.  Our job is to fulfill the legal issue, and we can do that with civil unions," Van Drew said.

That said, Van Drew noted that society is changing.  He said his more conservative constituents were against civil unions before the recent state Supreme Court ruling that called for equal treatment for gays.  Van Drew said they are now willing to accept civil unions if same-sex marriage is not allowed.

"I think there will be a gradual change.  Could there be same-sex marriages?  Yes, but I don't think it will be tomorrow," Van Drew said.

Gables, a Cape May County-based group, has been pushing for full marriage rights and using economic arguments.  Gables alerted the media to the UCLA study and argues that it would be irresponsible to reject tourism dollars and that it would cost taxpayers more to set up the bureaucracy for civil unions compared with simply allowing gays to marry.

"The only fiscally responsible behavior is to amend the marriage statute," Gables argues.

Badgett said her figures are conservative.  She assumes about 5 percent of gay couples in most states would come to New Jersey to marry.  She uses this figure for 41 states and Washington, D.C., for a total of 20,402 weddings over three years.

She also picks out seven nearby states that have, according to U.S. Census data, 153,000 cohabitating same-sex couples.  She predicts 25 percent of them would come to New Jersey to marry.

The out-of-state total comes to 58,564 marriages over three years.

The final estimate comes to $233.9 million, or about $78 million a year for three years.  That does not include the $24.5 million per year Badgett said would be spent by New Jersey same-sex couples.  She predicts they would spend considerably less on the weddings, since they live here, but she said 50 percent of the 16,604 same-sex couples identified in the 2000 census would likely get married in their home state.

The study sets sales tax revenue at $7.2 million year but does not try to estimate money in room taxes or tax money paid by individuals working in the wedding business.  The study also predicts the gay wedding business would create new jobs, higher wages and greater profits for many businesses.

To e-mail Richard Degener at The Press: RDegener@pressofac.com -– 609 463-6711

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