Gay Marriage Could Affect Swing State Vote
By AP from the NYTimes on the Web, September 1, 2004
NEW YORK -- The war in Iraq; jobs and the economy; terrorism.
For voters nationwide, those issues seem sure to determine the outcome on Election Day.
But in several critical swing states, the conservative push to amend state constitutions and ban gay marriage is giving delegates and party officials a way to lure a group of voters -- especially traditional churchgoers -- who could tip these states to President Bush.
Pollsters and analysts disagree how much impact voters on these ballot initiatives will have in their states -- unless the presidential race gets very close.
If it does, they say the edge would go for the GOP.
"It's going to get people out to vote," said Ohio delegate Donald Miller, a retired industrialist from Fostoria.
"If we can get the congregations to register and vote, it's going to make a huge difference."
Miller, a state party committeeman, said he and other state officials met with over 100 ministers, asking them to inform their congregants and encourage them to register and to vote in support.
"They're not being asked to vote for Bush. They're being asked to vote their heart," he said.
Still, he's confident that conservative churchgoers who respond will vote, four out of five, for Bush.
Amendments are on the Nov. 2 ballot, or pending approval, in 11 states, including four swing states:
--Arkansas, which Bush won in 2000 by 50,172 votes.
--Oregon, which former vice president Al Gore won by less than 1 percent, or 6,765 votes.
--Michigan, which Gore won by 217,279 votes.
The ballot question in Michigan has yet to be certified.
--Ohio, which Bush won by 165,109 votes.
The question has yet to be given final approval.
Outside of Election Day, Louisiana will vote on its amendment Sept. 18. Missouri voters already amended their constitution, turning out in record numbers Aug. 3 to overwhelmingly approve the ballot question.
Same-sex marriage has already been a divisive and attention-getting issue in recent months.
Bush pushed, unsuccessfully, for Congress to agree to a constitutional amendment banning such marriages, after Massachusetts legalized same-sex marriages under court order.
Then leaders in a scattering of communities, from New Paltz, N.Y., to San Francisco, challenged state law by marrying homosexual and lesbian couples.
Republicans responded by passing a platform Monday that uncompromisingly opposed such marriages.
All that attention actually makes it less likely the issue will have sweeping impact in the swing states, because voters on both sides are energized and voters overall are already more engaged and likely to vote this election, said Ed Sarpolus, a Michigan pollster.
Sarpolus said Republicans would only benefit from the ballot question in Michigan if the margin between Bush and Kerry were as slim as 50,000 votes, less than a quarter of the winning margin for Gore in 2000.
Another Michigan analyst sees a greater benefit for Bush, especially since the latest polls there show a statistical dead heat.
"It is possible this race will be decided by less than 100,000 votes. That's absolutely when it will be felt," said pollster Steve Mitchell.
"It allows supporters to do voter registration drives in the churches. If they do that, by huge margins, people who go to church once a week or more are Republican."
Many see an underhanded strategy, convinced that backers hope to boost Bush along with banning gay marriages.
"I don't think it's an accident that a number of swing states are facing these constitutional amendments," said Rebekah Kassell of the No on Constitutional Amendment 36 group in Portland, Ore.
For those in support, it's about morals and tradition. In Arkansas, David Purifoy, a volunteer with the Family Council, is sending packages to pastors as well as talking with friends, neighbors and members of his congregation.
"Not every church member is going to feel the same way," said Purifoy, from Greenwood.
"But more so than not, the churches are going to favor not changing the definition" of marriage.
And that, he would bet, will help Bush, even if conservative Democrats also support the question.
For swing states, those incremental numbers are everything, said Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell.
"This is a big issue in Ohio. It's going to be an issue that will draw out a lot of voters," said Blackwell, a delegate who spoke to ministers at the gathering with Miller.
"Turnout is going to be very, very key."
|
